Stuck in reverse for most of 2023, Fisker (FSR -2.01%) stock had plummeted more than 78% through the first 11 months of the year. Then came December. In the last days of 2023, Fisker had two announcements that powered investors’ enthusiasm so strongly that they decided to park the electric vehicle (EV) stock in their portfolios.
But does the stock’s run in the last week of 2023 suggest that there’s more room for shares to drive higher in 2024 and beyond? Let’s kick the tires and see if this is a stock that belongs on investors’ buy lists in the new year.
Why investors slammed on the brakes in 2023
Back in February, investors believed there were green lights ahead for the EV company after reviewing its fourth-quarter 2022 financial results. Management projected 2023 production of about 42,000 vehicles and believed that the company would achieve an 8% to 12% gross margin for the year. Those green lights turned to red, though, and things came to a screeching halt just a few months later.
During the company’s first-quarter 2023 earnings presentation, management downwardly revised vehicle production guidance to 32,000 to 36,000 units. Several months later, management cut this production guidance further to 20,000 to 23,000 vehicles, though it reaffirmed its 2023 gross margin forecast of 8% to 12%. This didn’t last, though. In the Q3 2023 earnings report, Fisker failed to reaffirm its gross margin guidance, and in December, the company announced it was reducing its 2023 production outlook even further to about 10,000 vehicles — a 76% reduction from the initial guidance. With the significant reduction, moreover, investors likely surmised that the company will report a gross loss for 2023.
What’s on the road ahead in 2024
Fisker has taken a more measured approach toward making bold predictions about the coming year, claiming simply that it has overcome many of the supply chain challenges that precluded it from achieving its 2023 vehicle production guidance. Management plans on announcing a plan to ramp up sales and deliveries this month.
Fisker plans on commencing deliveries Spain, Portugal, and Italy in the first quarter of 2024. And the company plans on opening a Fisker Studio (its name for a showroom) in Shanghai, China, in early 2024.
Presumably, during 2024 Fisker will provide some insight into how its plan to expand its product offerings is proceeding. By 2027, Fisker expects to have seven different models available to customers. And the company is targeting the debut of three of these models in 2025: the Fisker Pear, the Fisker Ronin, and Fisker Alaska.
Look out for the potholes
Announcing a more than 300% quarter-over-quarter increase in vehicle deliveries during the fourth quarter and 2023 production of 10,142 vehicles, Fisker gave investors something to cheer at the end of 2023. But this is hardly enough to power enough confidence to pick up shares in the new year. Furthermore, even if Fisker provides a bold forecast for 2024 regarding vehicle production or deliveries in the coming weeks, investors should refrain from hitching a ride with the upstart EV company.
Instead, investors should look for confirmation in the company’s first-quarter 2024 earnings report that it’s out of the woods with its supply chain woes and that its vehicle production is, in fact, accelerating. Similarly, investors will want to see that the company is making comparable progress toward the positive gross margin — and maybe even adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) — that it expected in 2023.
Of course, increasing vehicle production is great, but it means little if customer demand is waning. Therefore, investors will want to confirm that the company is continuing to see an increase in its reservations. Should the customer deposits fall from the $16.4 million it reported at the end of Q3 2023, it would certainly raise a yellow flag.
Additionally, investors will want to see progress in the company’s plan on bringing new models to market in the coming years. Success in bringing these new offerings will greatly broaden its appeal to customers and will help it to compete against formidable peers like Tesla and Rivian Automotive.
Keep Fisker stock in neutral for now
Although Fisker’s past year was a lot less successful than it had originally imagined it would be, it’s not to say that the company’s potential to succeed has evaporated. There is certainly the possibility that the company will transcend the supply chain challenges that plagued it in 2023, but investors should look for confirmation of this in upcoming financial reports, verifying that vehicle production is rising. For now, the best approach is to watch Fisker from the side of the road.
