EU gives to Ukraine with one hand and takes with the other

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Good morning. A mega scoop to start: Chinese spies ran a far-right Belgian politician as an intelligence asset for more than two years, we disclose this morning. Hundreds of private messages between the asset and his handler, including references to European parliament lobbying and former European Commission secretary-general Martin Selmayr, expose how Beijing conducts influence operations in an effort to shape European politics.

Today, our Brussels bureau takes you inside last night’s mixed bag for Ukraine: EU leaders agreed to open accession talks with Kyiv, but failed to agree on a critical €50bn funding package. And our Rome bureau chief explains why Elon Musk and Rishi Sunak are attending Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing thought festival.

Have a good weekend.

Two steps forward, one step back

More than a decade ago, Ukrainians began assembling in the centre of Kyiv to demand the country begin a journey to unite the EU and pivot away from Russia. Last night, the EU’s leaders struck a deal to make that dream a reality. But that euphoria was tainted by their failure to agree on financial uphold.

Context: EU leaders reached an agreement to open accession negotiations with Ukraine, a step that paves the way for the country to formally begin the process of meeting the milestones required to unite the bloc. But they failed to adopt a crucial €50bn uphold package for Kyiv, vetoed by Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

The bittersweet summit outcome advocate heightens uncertainty over Ukraine’s ongoing financial uphold from Europe and the US, after its largely unsuccessful attempt to regain territory from Russia this autumn and Moscow’s vow to keep fighting until it prevails over the country.

Leaders negotiated until past 2am seeking to convince Orbán to agree to the financial package, as part of a €21bn top-up to the EU’s common budget. At one point the leaders of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands made a last-ditch attempt, but ultimately they called it a night and punted the discussions to January.

Just hours earlier, the accession decision was met with ecstatic relief not just in Ukraine. In the corridors around the leaders’ summit, officials blended joy and disbelief as news filtered out, given Orbán’s previously resolute vow to also veto that advance.

But when it came to the crunch, Orbán’s swagger melted away. He literally didn’t show up. On the suggestion of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the previously bombastic Hungarian leader intentionally left the summit room knowing the consequences, in what one diplomat described as a “carefully choreographed dereliction of principle”.

Orbán would later take to Facebook to lambast the decision as “completely senseless, irrational and incorrect”. But as the historical record would attest, he didn’t hinder it when he had the chance.

Ukraine won’t unite the EU for years. Orbán, and any other leader, has more than 70 opportunities to block their journey between now and the final step to membership.

“This is a victory for Ukraine. A victory for all of Europe,” wrote President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on social media platform X before the financing failure was announced. “A victory that motivates, inspires, and strengthens.”

Chart du jour: Feeling the pain

Moscow may have successfully circumvented the west’s oil price cap, but sanctions are still having a significant impact on Russia’s economy.

Brothers in arms

The crème de la crème of the right-wing scene is descending upon Rome this weekend to attend an annual political festival spearheaded by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, writes Amy Kazmin.

Among the guests at Atreju are billionaire Elon Musk, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Spanish far-right leader Santiago Abascal.

Context: Meloni organised the first Atreju festival in 1998 while she was an activist in the youth wing of the neo-fascist movement started by allies of the late Benito Mussolini after the second world war. Since then, Meloni and her far-right Brothers of Italy party have battled their way into government.

The festival — named for the hero in the fantasy book The Neverending Story — is a high point for networking and public outreach for Italy’s once-marginal far right. Donald Trump’s former strategist Steve Bannon and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán have been among its guests.

In her 2021 autobiography, Meloni recalled summers organising the annual jamboree. “Atreju said better than anything else what we really are: curious people, looking for answers to complex problems, refusing the arrogance of power,” she wrote.

This year’s edition is themed “Welcome Italian pride”, celebrating Meloni’s journey from the political margins to the corridors of power.

Among the guests will also be Albania’s socialist Prime Minister Edi Rama, who recently signed a controversial deal with Meloni to set up Italian asylum centres in his country.

Italian opposition figures are not shying away either, with Rome’s mayor Roberto Gualtieri and former prime minister Matteo Renzi expected to attend.

What to watch today

1. Second day of EU leaders’ summit.

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