Shares of Apple (AAPL) are going to make what I call a “Volatility Surge” in the next few days, providing you with the opportunity to ride the stock from $195 to $210 before the end of the year. These are the type of moves that traders comb through the charts for, I’ll walk you through it in less than two minutes.
Let’s go!
Here’s What’s Happening: Since mid-November, Apple has been trading in a tight 2% trading range, as the stock took a break following an 18% rally from its October lows. That consolidation has dropped my daily volatility indicator to levels only seen ahead of a surge in price movement. Think of the last three weeks of sideways activity as the “quiet before the storm.”
These type of volatility surges necessitate a “trigger,” and in this case, Apple’s stock price is sitting a mere $0.70 below its trigger price of $195. As a matter of fact, AAPL traded with a high of $195 on Thursday, but closed lower giving you another chance to take part in the anticipated proceed.
How Do I Know About this proceed? Look, I’m a numbers nerd and the market is a great place for the numbers to tell a story. Here’s the story.
The data shows that Apple’s stock has seen once before in 2023. In May, shares drew the same pattern ahead of a 10% rally in shares. We’re talking the same pattern here!
Check out the chart below…
Here’s the Bottom Line: There has been a lot of doubt towards AAPL over the last few months after the last earnings report. This technical breakout will begin a good old fashioned “FOMO” rally as we head into the end of the year, as investors rush to add the basic portfolio staple back to their accounts.
I’m targeting a proceed to $210 that is likely to guide even higher into January.
Full disclosure, I am long the stock and call options.
About the Author
Chris Johnson is a highly regarded equity and options analyst who has spent much of his nearly 30-year market career designing and interpreting complex models to help investment firms change millions of data points into impressive gains for clients.
At heart Chris is a quant – admire the “rocket scientists” of investing – with a specialty in applying advanced mathematics admire stochastic calculus, linear algebra, differential equations, and statistics to Wall Street’s data-rich environment.
He began building his proprietary models in 1998, analyzing about 2,000 records per day. Today, that database, which Chris designed and coded from scratch, analyzes a staggering 700,000 records per day. It’s the secret behind his track record.
Chris holds degrees in finance, statistics, and accounting. He worked as a licensed broker for 11 years before taking on the role of Director of Quantitative Analysis at a big-name equity and options research firm for eight years. He recently served as Director of Research of a Cleveland-based investment firm responsible for hundreds of millions in AUM. He is also the Founder/CIO of ETF Advisory Research Partners since 2007, noted for its groundbreaking work in Behavioral Valuation systems. Their research is widely read by leaders in the RIA business.
Chris is ranked in the top 99.3% of financial bloggers and top 98.6% of overall experts by TipRanks, the track record registry of financial analysts dating back to January 2009.
He is a frequent commentator on financial markets for CNBC, Fox, Bloomberg TV, and CBS Radio and has been featured in Barron’s, USA Today, Newsweek, and The Wall Street Journal, and numerous books.
Today, Chris is the editor of Night Trader and Penny Hawk. He also contributes to Money Morning as the Quant Analysis Specialist.
