It’s once again that time of year, when every financial institution on the planet decides it would be a good idea to make broad predictions about the coming year — despite epochal events occurring in the early months of 2020 and 2022 to quickly remind us just how absurd such an approach is.
FTAV’s finest minds will trawl through them for kompromat notable predictions soon enough, but as we expect for more to trickle in, here’s something totally reductive to tide you over.
Befitting their status as prestige publications, year-ahead reports get given extra attention in the visual department. What are this year’s photo appreciate, and what can the imagery of this year’s batch tell us? [Ed note: we’ll force Louis to update this with more submissions once the outlook season really explodes. Ed update: despite Louis’s moans that is precisely what we are now doing. Send us your fave stock image from a 2024 outlook and we’ll get him to judge the artistic merits]
NatWest
Let’s kick off with a cliché. With any topic that involves divergence or uncertainty, why not pick a fork in the road? Everyone gets what it is supposed to mean (the situation is highly unpredictable) and what it actually means (a lot of the report is going to be wrong/useless).
This metaphorically-obvious stock image, “fork roads in steppe on sunset background”, is certainly popular for a good dilemma — appearing on divorce advice, articles about consciousness, LinkedIn posts (“There IS another way”, “Another new start?”) and an article called “Navigating Life’s Turning Points”.
The picture itself is certainly lively, with a tried-and-tested composition in thirds and the use of a narrow aperture to really emphasis the sun.
John Briggs, NatWest head of economics and markets strategy, says:
The world is increasingly volatile, and we see ongoing conflicts contributing to increased geopolitical uncertainty in 2024. Not just open warfare but a continuing regionalization of trade, rising protectionism and deglobalization, as well the ongoing “cold war” between the US and China. The simmering tensions in US-China relations will also be influenced by the US elections next year, and elections in the UK, Taiwan, India, Mexico, and South Africa all have the potential to influence not just domestic policies but international relations in an ever-divisive world.
Which is a long-winded way of saying the only interesting geopolitical question is who will win next year’s US election.
The choice of fork itself is at least interesting. This isn’t a stark divide between two vastly different paths, it’s two very similar-looking paths that both look appreciate they could direct to a Breaking Bad execution site. The right-hand one seems to immediate bifurcate again, which we suppose is telling.
Lazard
Lazard’s opted for a top-down approach, with a modest (13-page) outlook document that contains three aerial pictures of pleasant looking bodies of water:
The cover image shows the Kilkee Cliffs on Ireland’s Bishop Island (with the title box neatly covering the parked sightseers), a picture by one Domenico di Basilio. The left-hand/top image above (seemingly a favourite of PwC, which has used it a bunch of times) shows a beach near Lumio in Corsica, while the right-hand/bottom is from Crete, by iStock contributor borchee.
All of them, appreciate any picture of the sea, remind us of the beauty and unpredictability of nature. They’re also well-executed technically, and in their use of perspective remind us of the benefits an alternative view can supply.
Ronald Temple, Lazard’s chief market strategist, says:
Navigating the evolving — at times treacherous — geopolitical landscape will likely necessitate access to deep wells of expertise, as geopolitical issues that could have been ignored in the past now stand to directly impact companies’ supply chains and customer bases.
So it’s all about coastal erosion? Does that final picture imply volcanic activity beneath the surface? Or is that one of the “deep wells” from which (presumably) Lazard draws encounter?
Goldman Sachs Asset Management
Goldman’s asset management wing opens its outlook with a picture of Skywalk Aiyerweng, a picturesque thing in southern Thailand that is captured picturesquely in this picture.
This skywalk picture (by user wichianduangsri on iStock) is another popular choice for reports — readers may recall it from IBM’s seminal “Open the door to open innovation” or, less explicably, EY’s “Tax news: Changes in tax legislation”.
The image has been well-aligned to unite the skywalk and the edge of the trees, creating a striking division with the clouds beyond.
Marc Nachmann, global head of asset and wealth management, says:
Embracing change is not easy. It requires resilience and action to avoid being left behind — even when finding the way forward is difficult.
The theme is clearly innovation, and how better to show that than with a bridge that doesn’t direct anywhere?
Barclays
A single sober image for Barclays’ global outlook: the picture, by one Aleksandar Georgiev, is from taken from 30,000ft according to its description on iStock, and titled “The First Sunlight of Planet Earth”, which we somewhat doubt is true.
It indicates a soft landing — but from the stratosphere, which adds a frisson of danger to the whole thing.
Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chair of research, says:
In short, 2024 is likely to be as challenging to pilot as the past few years have been, even if we think the end outcome is relatively benign.
Which really says absolutely nothing at all.
Amundi
Amundi’s 2024 outlook is titled “Steering through turning tides” — and how better to represent that than by reusing an image of a lighthouse, which doesn’t steer? Or maybe investors are the ship, and Amundi is the lighthouse? Or the lighthouse an investments goal that can only be accessed through particular tides?
Either way, we weren’t able to track down the exact source of this dramatic picture of Phare de la Jumet — a lighthouse in Brittany, France — but a similar level splashage appears to have occurred in 2016, during Storm Imogen. Frankly, in those conditions we’d say the storm is more concerning than the tides, although it could be a tidal surge?
But back to the finance — what kind of assessment could prompt such tempestuous imagery? Here’s group chief investment officer Vincent Mortier:
2024 will be about long duration, building income with credit, EM bonds and dividends, and seeking growth in Asia, as well as exploiting structural themes.
BNP Paribas
So far we only have a CLO strategy document from BNP Paribas, who’ve decided everyone’s favourite tranchèd securities to hit, and hopefully climb, a “maturity wall” in the coming solar circuit.
Unfortunately, that wall appears to be the Great Wall of China, as shown in this image by iStock contributor real444, which is well-exposed and really captures the length of the wall in its careful composition. Does the thesis warrant such a storied and large wall?
BNP Paribas’s strategists write:
CLOs have performed well, so far, in 2023 driven by a strong technical backdrop and a ‘slow motion’ fundamental deterioration. In 2024, we expect the nearing maturity wall for loans to be a key factor of CLO performance. The percentage of US loans maturing over the next two years is the highest seen since 2012.
So the answer appears to basically be: yes. Good work.
JPMorgan
JPMorgan’s Global Outlook came with a nice Joan Armatrading-inspired title (“I am not in love but I’m open to persuasion”), but no imagery. Thankfully, the fixed income strategists stepped up to the plate.
Their prognosis of an “uneven downhill journey” is accompanied by a dramatic and contrasty shot of sunset at the Peak District’s Mam Tor (the work of a fellow simply called “Adrian”) — it’s great to see some Derbyshire representation from the world’s biggest bank.
It’s not the world’s scariest downhill road, befitting JPM’s views:
We expect a steady and gradual easing cycle towards neutral level of rates across DMs if our macro baseline of soft landing unfolds, with differentiation across jurisdictions in terms of start date, pace and terminal
So, savor the view — the delights of the booths of Edale mild recessions and central bank easing lie ahead.
ING
ING’s optimistic (ish):
Bond markets love nothing more than the turn of the rate cycle. That’s why we’re bullish and expect an evolution towards normal-looking upward curves at lower levels. It’s all sounding just a bit too normal, though. We still worry about liquidity risks, the fiscal deficit in the US, and geopolitics — and admittedly, about 2024 as a whole.
And how better to show that than with the familiar motif of a yacht emerging from a storm into calmer waters. This picture, from Adobe Stock contributor Aastels, shows “Clear sky after the rain, dramatic glowing clouds, golden sunlight, waves and water splashes, cyclone”. Investors can feel free to add any other acts of God they consider relevant.
As for the image, it’s decently well-composed, and appears to be in focus, which is good because the photographer must have been worried about slipping up.
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley serves readers a pretty simple hazard perception assess, with this image of New Zealand State Highway 6, along the edge of Lake Wakatipu near a geographic feature known as the Devil’s Staircase.
This particular picture is by Alex Cimbal, and makes skilled use of composition by showing both the landscape and a sign warning rocks might extinguish you.
The bank’s strategists write:
Will DM economies avoid recession while taming inflation? While recessions remain a risk everywhere, we expect any recession in our baseline scenario (such as in the UK) to be shallow because inflation is falling with full employment, so real incomes are buoyed, leaving consumption resilient, despite more volatile investment spending.
We’re not sure what a rockfall would represent in this framing.
Incidentally, travelling one mile down that road would take you roughly to the foot of the Devil’s Staircase, so, uh, good luck in 2025 everyone!
UBS Wealth Management
Curves.
More curves.
Yet more curves.
. . . you get the point. There are five advance pages of this 72-page report that are also just architecture stock images from Unsplash and Pexels, both free stock image websites. We reckon UBS could have afforded to opt for paid stock images, but whatever.
Iqbal Khan, president of UBS Wealth Management, says:
We think it will pay to focus on quality in 2024. As interest rates fall, we expect quality bonds to deliver both attractive income and capital appreciation. And we believe it will be quality stocks, including many in the technology sector, that will be best positioned to grow earnings in a slowing global economy.
We guess it’s just associating modern, high-quality buildings with modern, high-quality assets which is, you know, fine.
Its opening pitch continues:
As we enter a new world, it would be easy to feel a sense of trepidation. Yet it’s worth remembering that since 1900, the world has seen two world wars, nine pandemics, hundreds of civil or regional wars, more than 2,000 nuclear detonations, revolutions in both the world’s largest and most populous countries, at least a dozen hyperinflations, over 15 bear markets, over 20 recessions, and almost 200 sovereign defaults or debt crises.
Apparently that’s supposed to ease our sense of trepidation.
All in all, it’s a lot more ambiguous than UBS’s effort last year, which was titled “A Year of Inflections” and was packed full of photos of bendy roads and rivers.
Still, it seems less of a hostage to fortune than that of new subsidiary Credit Suisse, whose last-ever outlook, published last year, contained an image of a fast-moving train.
Invesco
Invesco is a little bit confusing. On its Investment Outlook 2024’s web page, the report — “A balancing act for growth and inflation” — is illustrated by a man who looks appreciate he is practising his goal kick technique on a chair:
The image — “Stylish Man Doing Ballet Pose On Bench” — is by Stocksy contributor Alba Vitta. The stylish man — also called “Urban fashion man” — is available in a variety of other poses. The image makes clear use of background and foreground and has a nice colour palette, but is it really that hard to balance on a chair?
Anyway, the cover image for of the PDF version of Invesco’s outlook is remarkably different:
…we’re not really sure what’s going on here, but sitting in a chair (wheeled or otherwise) doesn’t seem to be much of a balancing act.
The image in this case — “A female leader speaking with a disabled co worker” — is from Getty, taken in Singapore by Koh Sze Kiat. It makes skilled use of backlighting to cast its subjects in silhouette, creating an opportunity for the viewer to project their own meanings.
Chief market strategist Kristina Hooper says:
After nearly two years of policymakers fighting inflation, our 2024 outlook centers on the balance between growth durability versus the stickiness of inflation.
We’re not sure which is supposed to be which in the chosen picture.
Société Générale
OMG, HELLO FRIEND. 🦥
We couldn’t find a source for the image of this charming specimen, which has also previously been used (without credit) by the BBC — but other than being a bit overexposed this is a competently-executed image.
More to the point — they really did it: what says resilient but sluggish better than the humble sloth? And why don’t more year-aheads feature cute critters? We don’t know what the macroeconomic equivalent to falling out of a tree is, but we sure aren’t keen to find out.
