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Net migration to the UK fell 10 per cent to 685,000 in 2023 but inflows remained well above historical averages, according to official data that will be seized upon by political parties ahead of the general election on July 4.
The Office for National Statistics figures for legal migration indicated the number of people coming to the country to work overtook those coming to study last year.
The figures also showed the 2022 peak in net migration was higher than thought, at 764,000. Net inflows in the year to June 2023 were also 68,000 higher than estimates at 740,000.
Polls consistently show migration is one of the top three issues concerning voters ahead of the election. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has come under severe pressure from the right flank of his party to meet a Conservative pledge to slash net migration to Britain.
However, economists warn delivering on this pledge could have serious consequences for universities, the care sector and the economy.
Following the news, home secretary James Cleverly announced a crackdown on “rogue recruitment agents”, who encourage people to apply to British universities.
Under the plans, universities will have to sign up to a stringent framework for hiring agents, with new compliance standards introduced for institutions drawing students from overseas. International students will also have to prove they are financially self-sufficient when they apply for UK courses.
Cleverly said the latest figures showed the government’s plan was working “but there is more to do”.
Shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper said the figures showed “total Tory chaos and failure on immigration”, with net migration trebling since the last election and a 50 per cent increase in work migration in the past year.
The ONS said it was too soon to tell whether the modest decline in net migration was the start of a downward trend. But it noted separate Home Office data showed visa applications had dropped in recent months, after policy changes intended to slash numbers.
Last year’s decline in net migration came before such measures took effect and was partly because of a rise in emigration, as students finished their courses. Net emigration by EU and British citizens also continued.
Humanitarian-related immigration also fell, from 160,000 in 2022 to 50,000 in 2023, as fewer people came from Ukraine and Hong Kong.
The ONS said immigration was now driven by work-related arrivals from outside the EU, which rose from 277,000 in 2022 to 423,000 in 2023.
Almost half of such arrivals were coming from India or Nigeria, most commonly to work in the health and social care sector. The number coming as dependants of those on long-term work visas was higher than the number of main applicants.
A ban on masters students bringing family members began at the start of 2024. Further measures announced in December — including higher salary thresholds for skilled workers and a ban on care workers bringing dependants — took effect in March and April.
The Home Office has said the latest policy changes are likely to cut net immigration by about 300,000.
Home Office data released on Wednesday showed the number of people applying for UK visas to work in health and social care or as dependants of students dropped dramatically in the first four months of the year compared with the same period last year.
But Brian Bell, chair of the government’s Migration Advisory Committee, earlier this month warned there was a risk of the government “overachieving” on its targets, if fewer students and care workers wanted to come to the UK without the option of bringing family.
This could threaten universities’ financial survival and the care sector’s ability to recruit, said Marley Morris, associate director at the IPPR think-tank. “The reality is there are some tough choices on immigration which will need to be grappled with, whoever wins the upcoming election,” he said.
Jonathan Portes, professor at King’s College, London, said the next government was set to “inherit sharply falling immigration”, which might defuse political tensions around the issue but would have “unpalatable” consequences for the economy, labour market and the public finances.
