The favoured Toronto Blue Jays continue their three-game series with the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday in a 7:07 p.m. game at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays took the series opener on Monday, 9-3, behind six strong innings from José Berríos and a monster day at the plate from Danny Jansen, who drove in five runs on three hits.
It’s pretty obvious why both of these teams are in last place in their respective divisions. This series features two of the worst offences in MLB through the first couple of months. The Blue Jays’ 39 home runs rank 25th in MLB and the White Sox’s 34 rank dead last. The Blue Jays rank 29th in runs scored and the White Sox rank, yes, last.
Tuesday’s game might not be the spot to expect that trend to head in reverse. Two lefties with elite stuff, breaking-ball specialist Yusei Kikuchi and 6-foot-6 fireballer Garrett Crochet, are opposing one another from the mound.
Betting Chicago White Sox (14-34 SU, 22-26 ATS, 21-26-1 o/u)
The White Sox have the early lead in the race to secure the first overall pick in the 2025 draft, which is a kind way of describing just how awful they are.
The White Sox don’t do much well. In addition to the lack of pop mentioned above, they are last in MLB with a .276 on-base percentage. Their team ERA of 4.65 ranks 28th and only the Oakland A’s have had fewer defensive runs saved (DRS) than their -59.
At the individual level, the picture doesn’t get much brighter. The only qualified White Sox batter who ranks in the top 60 in MLB for OPS is Gavin Sheets (.760), who has been just slightly above average. There have been a few more bright spots on the mound, where Erick Fedde (3.10 ERA) has had a nice season and
Crochet has shown flashes of being the dominant starter the White Sox need.
The new front office has made a few decent moves to keep this team at least resembling a competitive major-league outfit. One of those moves has been signing the oft-discarded Paul DeJong, who leads the team with seven home runs and is playing his usual excellent shortstop. Another was the late signing of journeyman Tommy Pham, who just might be Chicago’s best healthy hitter.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (21-25 SU, 22-24 ATS, 19-27 o/u)
At this point, it might be time to give up on the notion that the big names in Toronto’s lineup will eventually produce at the levels their resumés would suggest. For whatever reason, the sum has been less than the reputation of the parts.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.775 OPS) hasn’t hit for the power one would expect, with just four home runs, and Bo Bichette (.622) and George Springer (.570) have been shadows of their former selves. Justin Turner (.662) started out hot, but has been in a miserable slump of late. It is only due to contributions from roles players such as Jansen, Daulton Varsho and Davis Schneider that this team has kept semi-afloat in an AL Central that is filled with sharks.
While the Blue Jays haven’t pitched quite as well as they did last season, when their arms carried them to the playoffs, Berríos and Kikuchi have been excellent and the team has played elite defence. Toronto’s team DRS of 85 leads MLB.
Probable starting pitchers
Chicago: LHP Garrett Crochet (4-4, 4.18 ERA, K/9, WHIP)
Pay little attention to Crochet’s won-loss record or ERA. He is a lot for the Blue Jays to have to contend with. A 6-foot-6 lefty with high-octane velocity, a nasty breaking ball and a cutter to neutralize right-handed batters, he is one of the best strikeout artists in the game. Going into Monday night’s action, Jack Flaherty was the only AL pitcher with more strikeouts than Crochet’s 70.
While the White Sox have made a lot of missteps given the miserable state of their team, converting Crochet into a starting pitcher after he pitched out of the bullpen each of the three previous seasons, seems like a sound move. He’s the kind of young talent, at 24, that this team can rebuild around. While Crochet hasn’t had great command of his slider, his four-seam fastball averages 97 mph, with a run value in the 96th percentile and his cutter and changeup have been excellent.
Toronto: LHP Yusei Kikuchi (2-3, 2.60 ERA, K/9, WHIP)
It’s time to bury the narrative that Kikuchi’s MLB career has been a disappointment after his years of stardom in Japan. At 32, the Blue Jays lefty has turned into one of the most reliable starting pitchers in the game. In 10 starts, he has allowed more than three earned runs and more than six hits just once, in a shaky start against the powerful L.A. Dodgers on April 27.
Kikuchi has been particularly sharp this month, with a 1.96 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings thus far in May. What makes him so good is a slider-curveball combination that perfectly complement a fastball that averages 96 mph. Kikuchi’s breaking balls have a run value that ranks in the 95th percentile. He’ll look to get ahead in the count and use those wipeout pitches to keep a bad Chicago offence reeling.
Weather
It would be hard to script a more comfortable evening to watch baseball in downtown Toronto and the roof should be open. Forecasts are calling for blue skies and temperatures of about 22C at first pitch, with a fairly steady wind blowing directly out at about 13 km/h.
MLB betting trends
The Blue Jays have gone 16-12 as favourites, a hit rate of 57.1%, but their implied chances of victory by these odds is 63.6%.
The White Sox, obviously, are perpetual underdogs in their games and they have won just 12 of those 46 games, a hit rate of 26.1%.
Combined, these teams have gone 40-54 (42.5%) when it comes to exceeding the run total.
MLB player prop trends
Eloy Jimenez has hit the runs under in 13 of his last 14 games.
Andrew Benintendi has hit the total bases under in 11 of his last 15 games.
Bichette had hit the total bases under in 17 of his previous 21 games before going 4-for-4 with three doubles in Monday’s game, good for seven total bases.
White Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions
Tommy Pham, like DeJong, has at least given this White Sox’s lineup a hint of menace that it would otherwise lack. And, though it’s an easy-to-dismiss sample size, his two home runs off Kikuchi in just five at-bats leaps off the page. Pham is the ultimate journeyman, but he’s a good value in this spot to eclipse his home runs over of 0.5 at +550.
Though the Blue Jays did a nice job against Fedde on Monday, they have left their best starting pitchers high and dry all season in terms of run support. And, with the two least-powerful lineups in MLB meeting in one place, it’s impossible to ignore the under here even though it’s only 7.5 runs. As we mentioned, Crochet is a talented young pitcher and Kikuchi is a veteran in his prime. It could make for a compelling pitchers’ duel.
