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For Warren Foegele, timing is everything. Over the past 3 seasons he’s proven to be a reliable up-and-down winger for the Edmonton Oilers, grinding his way up and down the sheet, and filling various positions up and down the depth chart. Lately, however, the arrows for the latter have been pointing down, down, down.
As the regular season came to a close, Foegele was riding high. He led the Oilers in shots on goal in each of the campaign’s final 4 games, firing 24 shots and an extraordinary 44 attempts over that span. In the process he pounded home 3 goals to reach the 20-goal milestone for the first time. He also achieved career highs in assists with 21, and obviously in points as well with 41. His splits of 38 points at even strength, 2 shorthanded, and a lonely 1 on the powerplay suggest those points were earned.
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A natural left winger, Foegele found a pretty regular role at 2RW this season, primarily alongside Leon Draisaitl. Playing just over 1000 minutes at 5v5 over the full 82 games, he produced 1.01 goals, 1.18 assists and 2.19 points per 60 minutes, ranking 60th, 92nd and 62nd respectively among regular NHL forwards (389 attackers with 450+ minutes). Given there are 96 first-line forwards across the 32 teams, those are first-line production rates across the board.
But in the playoffs things have not gone well. The first 2 games at home Foegele was on the second line, netting an empty net goal in Game 1 and a secondary assist in Game 2 while having some issues on the defensive side of the puck. By Game 3 in Los Angeles he was back at 3LW alongside Ryan McLeod and Corey Perry and was quiet in those games, give or take a few iffy moments. By the end of Game 4 he was riding the pine, playing a single shift of just 9 seconds duration in the final 10 minutes, the Oilers clinging to a 1-0 lead.
On Tuesday morning as the club returned to practice after a well-earned day off, the industrious winger found himself a further rung down the depth chart, on the fourth line with Derek Ryan and Mattias Janmark.
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Into his prior spot at 3LW steps the youngest current Oiler, Dylan Holloway. The third year pro has been developing in fits and starts, spending almost equal time in the NHL (89 GP), AHL (63 GP) and the infirmary (significant injuries in all 3 seasons).
Caught in the numbers game at mid-season, Holloway was sent out for one final stint at Bakersfield, where he began to find the range. Over the course of 18 games he scored 10-6-16, +7, ending with a flourish with a hat trick and an assist in his final AHL game. Coincidentally, that single game matched his boxcars from his entire Oilers season to that point: 32 GP, 3-1-4.
Called up in early April when Connor McDavid was briefly sidelined, he carried his improved play and production into the NHL. Playing all 6 games in the season’s final 9 days, he exceeded his prior totals with 3-2-5. Playing largely at 3Lw with McLeod and Perry, he fired 14 shots on net and landed 24 hits, injecting himself into the action in all 3 zones. In the process he changed quite a few minds, most notably coach Kris Knoblauch’s, about his readiness to play and contribute in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
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Sure enough, come Game 1, he was in the line-up at 4LW, while veterans like Ryan, Connor Brown and Sam Gagner were consigned to the press box. He kept things rolling with a pair of goals, both snipes from the slot, in Game 2, while holding his own on the defensive side of the puck. Playing just under 10 minutes per game, he continued to consistently bring the physical play, credited with 3, 3, 3 and 2 hits in the 4 games to date.
Now Holloway finds himself elevated back to the third line with McLeod and Perry, with whom he clicked nicely previously. Assuming he stays there, it’s a great opportunity for the youngster, but there is little argument he earned it. Unfortunately, based on the 4-game sample to this point, the same can be said about Warren Foegele.
About that fourth line
If Foegele is looking for increased opportunity, he can look to his new linemates for inspiration. It’s been interesting to track Knoblauch’s deployment of his fourth line, especially so in Game 4 when Ryan was activated in place of Sam Carrick. Not surprisingly, Janmark and Ryan were 1-2 on the team in shorthanded ice time, albeit in just a single, crucial kill that the team faced on the night, midway through the third period.
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But as the clock wound down, Knoblauch cycled those 2 “fourth-liners” into the rotation with increasing frequency. These were the line combos in the final 6 minutes, with a second or two of slop here and there due to on-the-fly line changes.
- 6:00-5:15: RNH – Draisaitl – Kane
- 5:15-4:24: Janmark – McLeod – Ryan
- 4:24-3:40: Henrique – McDavid – Hyman
- 3:38-3:03: RNH – Draisaitl – Janmark
- 3:03-2:29: McLeod – McDavid – Ryan
- 2:29-1:58: Henrique – Draisaitl – Janmark
- 1:57-1:37: RNH – McDavid – Ryan
- 1:35-0:56: Henrique – Draisaitl – Janmark
- 0:56-0:14: RNH – McDavid – Ryan
- 0:14-0:00: McDavid – Draisaitl – Janmark
Over the final 3½ minutes, either Janmark or Ryan was on the starboard flank at all times, switching off with each other every 30 seconds or so.
Similarly, Knoblauch and Paul Coffey diverged from their regular defensive combos. Once the Kings pulled netminder David Rittich with a minute and a half to play, the Oilers staff countered with the PK partnership of Mattias Ekholm and Vincent Desharnais for a critical 80-second shift that extended deep into the final minute of play.
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Did it work? The 1-0 final certainly says so. So does the fact that the baffled Kings mustered exactly zero (0) shots in those final 6 minutes. Depth players Ryan, Janmark and Desharnais were superb in that stretch, as indeed were all of the skaters who cycled through. For all he’d been terrific stopping pucks all night long, Stu Skinner was reduced to puckhandling duties in the closing stages.
From this distance, it was a masterclass in deployment, with the coach utilizing the best players suited to the task regardless of their place on the regular depth chart. The last minutes were treated as an extended penalty kill, especially once the goalie was pulled, and the Oilers executed to near perfection.
For all the squad had posted 17 goals in the first 3 games of the series, it was the way they made a single goal stand up in a tough Game 4 that raises my hopes the most for longer-term success.
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