Long one of baseball’s most consistent playoff teams, the New York Yankees missed the postseason in 2023 for the first time in six years after going 82-80.
It was the franchise’s worst season since 1992, when they went 76-86 in Buck Showalter’s first season in the dugout, and one overshadowed, as many expected, by Aaron Judge. Fresh off signing a stunning nine-year, $360-million contract, the hope was that one of the game’s biggest names was going to help lead the Bronx Bombers back to the promised land with hopes of another big season off his record-setting 62 home runs in 2022.
Instead, a torn ligament in his toe forced him to miss a third of the season — one that will now require “constant maintenance” — and the rest of the Yanks couldn’t muster up what was needed in a highly competitive AL East. This offseason saw them bring forth a mitigation plan, of sorts, picking up superstar slugger Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres in a deal that saw them trade away pitcher Michael King among some of their top prospects, as well as Alex Verdugo from the Red Sox in another deal.
Couple those with the signing of Marcus Stroman to help bolster the rotation amid minimal free agent losses, and the Yankees were optimistic about a big 2024 season, set to be skipper Aaron Boone’s seventh with the club.
But according to Baseball-Reference’s season-long projections, the Yankees are instead slated to have one of the worst seasons in franchise history, leaving them last in the AL East. Their numbers have the Pinstripes, on average, finishing the season with a 72-91 record, poor enough for a .441 win-loss percentage that would be the seventh worst in the franchise’s historic 122 years in Major League Baseball, and the seventh worst in the bigs this season. It gives them a 2.7 percent chance of making the American League playoffs, far and away the worst among AL East teams.
In a best-case scenario, which Baseball-Reference gives a 90 percent confidence rating on, they would mimic last year’s measly record, which left them on the outside looking in.
Baseball Reference is projecting the Yankees to finish last in the AL East at roughly 72-90
With 90% confidence, they're predicting their best case record at 82-80, and their worst case record at 61-101 pic.twitter.com/BFHVqH7doj
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) March 26, 2024
Things are much more favourable for other AL East teams, including the Toronto Blue Jays, who project an 86-76 record that would have them once again eek into the American League Wild Card picture in third place. This would set up another date with the Minnesota Twins, who Baseball-Reference projects winning the AL Central. The Jays’ 90 percent confidence record, meanwhile, would give them a 96-66 record.
Overall, the projections are favourable for the Jays. They enter the season with a 63.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, a 51.2 percent chance of being a Wild Card team, a 36.5 percent chance of making the divisional series, and a 13.9 percent chance of making the championship series. Their chance at winning the World Series? 2.2 percent—the 12th-best number in the Major Leagues.
Baseball-Reference loves the Baltimore Orioles this year, giving them a 12.9 percent chance at a World Series win, the second-best number to only the LA Dodgers.
Nonetheless, an offseason in Toronto many were critical of may not have been so poor after all.
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.
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