Martin Wolf (Opinion, March 20) is of course right that the west’s international standing and credibility depend upon our helping Ukraine at least avoid total defeat by Russia.
But, as their recent election has underlined, the Russians for both nationalistic and regime-survival reasons are much more intensely invested in this war than we are. They are with some success turning their country into another Sparta in order to win.
We have regularly been assured that the arrival of our latest weapons on the battlefield — Leopard tanks, cluster munitions, F-16s — would bring victory; and as regularly we have been disappointed. And even if further weapons (Taurus missiles) do begin to make a difference, no one is now expecting that to happen before summer 2025 at the earliest.
Meanwhile, the west’s international reputation will continue to crater as countries representing 80 per cent of the world’s population see us as engaged in a vindictive enterprise for which we ourselves (through our solipsistic determination to expand Nato) are in part responsible; and at the same time we do nothing to combat much nastier challenges to the international order, such as Israel’s slaughter of civilians in Gaza.
The adult answer is of course negotiations. The broad outline of the outcome is already clear. Ukraine will survive as an independent democracy with strong links to the west. It will require credible security guarantees, as will the Russians. There will be a territorial carve-up in which most of Ukraine will remain Ukrainian, but some bits that don’t want that (notably Crimea) will become Russian. Yes, it will be painful for everybody concerned; but perhaps less so than another two years — at least — of carnage.
Tony Brenton
Former British Ambassador to Moscow, Cambridge, UK
