Central bankers take centre stage

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

What is the collective noun for interest rate announcements? A pack? A litter? Whatever it is, we have one on our hands.

The headline acts will be the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, but we will also have policy updates from (in no specific ranking order) China, Australia, Switzerland, Indonesia, Norway, Turkey, Taiwan, Russia, Brazil and Mexico.

Last week’s unexpected rise in US inflation has raised doubts about whether the Fed will cut rates from 5.5 per cent to 5.25 per cent, as previously expected. My colleagues Claire Jones and Harriet Clarfelt explain the “last mile” challenges that Washington’s rate-setters must overcome.

In contrast, the success of Japanese workers in securing pay rises might push the BoJ to begin raising interest rates again. Read the excellent analysis by my colleagues Kana Inagaki and Robin Harding to understand what lies ahead for Japanese monetary policy, including helpful charts such as the one below.

Bank of England watchers are expecting a rate cut. The debate here is whether it will have the capacity to start cutting as soon as June. Our expert Chris Giles has much to say about this, and other central bank matters, in his excellent newsletter. Sign up here to get this sent to your inbox every Tuesday.

There are of course other important announcements due this week, not least a steady flow of results, probably best described as a smorgasbord, from retailers and drugmakers to technology companies and insurance groups. And on Monday, British technologist Mike Lynch will go on trial in San Francisco over what US prosecutors have called “the largest fraud in the history” of Silicon Valley. 

The economic news will also be coming thick and fast, notably China’s retail sales update, UK inflation figures, purchasing managers’ index data to compare the G7 nations and India, plus US home sales figures.

The week ends with IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva’s visit to China, starting in Beijing on Saturday. Full details of this and other items below.

One more thing . . . 

Are you aware that this Wednesday is International Day of Happiness? I must admit that was not the first emotion I felt when I made this discovery (though I am now wondering if there is a line of cards reading Happy Happiness Day). Indeed happiness is now officially a thing in corporate life to help improve staff morale, according to my colleague Oliver Balch.

How are you feeling? What are your priorities for the next seven days? Anything to add to the list below? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Deadline for JD.com to make a firm offer for British electricals retailer Currys

• Opening arguments expected in a San Francisco courtroom in the criminal trial of Mike Lynch. The British tech entrepreneur faces fraud charges over the $11bn sale of his software company Autonomy to Hewlett-Packard in 2011

• China: February year-to-date retail sales and industrial production figures

• EU: final year-on-year consumer price index (CPI) and Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• UK: Rightmove March House Price Index. Also, UK Finance publishes its monthly card-spending statistics

• US: NAHB Housing Market Index

• Conference: S&P Global’s CERAWeek energy industry gathering, with speakers including ExxonMobil’s chair and chief executive Darren Woods

• Results: Embraer Q4, Marshalls FY

Tuesday

• Australia: interest rate announcement

• Canada: February CPI inflation rate data

• Germany: Zew Economic Sentiment

• Japan: Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting interest rate announcement

• US: February building permits and housing starts data

• Results: Close Brothers HY, Commerzbank FY, Continental FY, DFS Furniture HY, Essentra FY, Harworth FY, Sabre Insurance FY, SThree Q1 trading update, Trustpilot FY, Videndum FY, Wickes FY

Wednesday

• Argentina: Q4 GDP and unemployment figures

• Brazil: interest rate announcement

• China: People’s Bank of China loan prime rate announcement

• EU: consumer confidence data

• Germany: February producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Indonesia: interest rate announcement

• Japan: Vernal Equinox Day. Financial markets closed

• UK: February CPI, PPI, retail price index (RPI) and CPIH (CPI excluding housing costs and council tax) inflation rate figures. Also, Land Registry UK House Price Index and Treasury forecasts for the economy, comparing independent surveys

• US: Federal Open Market Committee meeting rate decision announcement

• Speeches: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the opening address at the ECB and its Watchers conference in Frankfurt. Other speakers include ECB executive board members Philip Lane and Isabel Schnabel, and Bank of Spain governor Pablo Hernández de Cos

• Results: BioNTech Q4, Computacenter FY, General Mills Q3, Investec pre-close trading update, Micron Technology Q2, Prudential FY, Tencent Q4

Thursday

• Canada, EU, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB preliminary March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) manufacturing and services figures

• EU: European Central Bank Economic Bulletin, plus January balance of payments figures

• Japan: February trade balance figures (AM local time)

• Mexico: interest rate announcement

• Norway: interest rate announcement

• Switzerland: interest rate announcement

• Taiwan: interest rate announcement

• Turkey: interest rate announcement

• UK: Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee interest rate announcement. Also, Office for National Statistics data on the public sector finances

• US: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

• Conference: the UN’s nuclear arm, the IAEA, will host its first summit in Brussels. Speakers will include representatives from the atomic agencies of South Korea, Japan, the US, China and France, plus executives from nuclear energy firms

• Results: Accenture Q2, BMW FY, Centamin FY, CK Hutchison FY, Darden Restaurants Q3, Direct Line FY, Enel FY, FedEx Q3, London Gatwick Airport FY, Lululemon Athletica Q4, M&G FY, Next FY, Nike Q3

Friday

• Competition and Markets Authority deadline for decision for its Phase 1 investigation into the anticipated joint venture between Vodafone and CK Hutchison of their UK mobile networks Vodafone and Three

• Colombia: interest rate announcement

• Germany: Ifo Business Climate Survey

• Japan: February CPI inflation rate data (AM local time)

• Russia: interest rate announcement

• UK: GfK Consumer Confidence Survey. Also, ONS February retail sales figures for Great Britain

• Speeches: ECB chief economist Philip Lane gives a policy lecture on inflation and monetary policy at Aix-Marseille School of Economics in Marseille, France

• Results: Alpha Group International FY, Phoenix Group FY, OMV FY, JD Wetherspoon HY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week

Monday

• Korea: Seoul hosts the third Summit for Democracy, running until Wednesday, with attendees including US President Joe Biden (virtually)

• US: Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Manila for an official two-day visit, where he is expected to meet President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, before travelling to Seoul for the Summit for Democracy

Tuesday

Wednesday

• Vernal Equinox, marking the first day of spring

• International Day of Happiness, a global digital campaign encouraging people to support UN humanitarian efforts, including the publication of the annual World Happiness Report, ranking countries by their contentedness levels

Thursday

Friday

• UK: London’s High Court to hear applications by Prince Harry to amend his lawsuit against News Group Newspapers, publisher of the Sun and the now-defunct News of the World, over allegations of phone hacking and other privacy breaches

Saturday

• Lights go off across every continent for Earth Hour, notably in Australia, where Sydney turns off parts of the lights of the Opera House

• Canada: state funeral of former prime minister Brian Mulroney, who died recently in Florida aged 84

• China: IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva begins visit, starting in Beijing and finishing on March 27

• Slovakia: presidential election

Sunday

• Holi, religious festival celebrated by Hindus and Sikhs with the throwing of coloured powder and water at fellow celebrants

• Israel: Jewish festival of Purim. Financial markets closed

• Senegal: presidential election

• Vatican City: Pope Francis attends a Palm Sunday service in St Peter’s Square