Labour’s promising bridge closer to the EU has caveats

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Good morning. Are we heading towards a May election? My short answer is “no”, my longer answer is coming tomorrow. For some thoughts on one way the next election will and won’t change the UK’s relationship with the EU, more below.

Channel crossing

One sure-fire way a Labour victory will change politics is that it will accelerate the speed in which various parts of civic society openly talk about the shortcomings in the UK’s trade deal with the EU and the downsides of Brexit in general.

Although Rishi Sunak is himself a long-term Brexiter, the return of committed Remainers to his cabinet has already led to a softening of what many see as the rote shibboleths about “global Britain” (the idea that the UK’s departure from the EU would boost opportunities for trade deals with economies outside of Europe).

Under a Labour government, that will vanish completely. In addition, ambitious ministers who want to make a name for themselves will want to highlight the ways they are working with the EU.

But a willingness to get closer to someone has to be reciprocated for it to lead anywhere, and there is not a great deal of enthusiasm about reopening the Trade and Cooperation Agreement among the 27 member states. Might becoming a more active and regular partner in European-wide security initiatives help? Labour certainly hopes so, and Robert Shrimsley has made it the subject of his column in today’s paper. Some further thoughts on that below.

Officially, Starmer seeks only incremental advances: a veterinary regulations agreement, mutual recognition of qualifications, a possible return to the Erasmus student exchange scheme and easier youth mobility.

Even these are not simple. Labour would want a bespoke sanitary and phytosanitary veterinary deal, mutual qualification recognition is complex to deliver and greater mobility would also mean more EU arrivals, though the party hope for progress on short-term work visas (particularly in the creative industries).

Until recently, Labour’s focus has been on a looming review of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement as the way to revisit disadvantageous aspects of the post-Brexit deal.

But there is little evidence that the European Commission has any appetite for reopening a settlement it found favourable. In Brussels the review is seen more as operational. So Labour’s thinking is shifting.

There are signs it is looking beyond the review, which one insider refers to as “a bit of a red herring”, for other ways to rebuild a relationship with the EU and lay the groundwork for some commercial realignment. The party now sees a new security and defence pact as an alternative and more productive path back.

Labour’s thesis here is that you take a very expansive definition of what security covers, ranging from energy security to supply chains to critical raw materials.

This isn’t a terrible idea, but it is dependent on elections in the EU and the US going a certain way. If Joe Biden wins the presidential election — do sign up to our US Election Countdown newsletter for more on that contest — then I think quite frankly many more politicians in Europe will treat it as a near-death experience for Nato and move on to other things.

But also, if the pro-Putin parts of the radical right are electorally successful — do read this illuminating column by Jonathan Derbyshire on the split in Europe’s radical right on that issue — then using a security pact as a way towards closer relations with the EU is off the table for other reasons.

So while Labour will both want to get closer to the bloc and will face much more vocal calls to do so than the present government, it will have to find a lot of routes to get there.

Now try this

I saw Nye at the National Theatre yesterday: Michael Sheen is terrific in the central role. His performance as Nye Bevan is perfect, right down to the fine details of his stammer, and I’m very glad to have seen him do it. There are also some wonderful turns from the supporting cast. If you can catch it, either in cinemas on April 23 or at the National Theatre in London or Cardiff’s Millennium Centre, it is certainly worth your time.

But as a play I don’t think it’s going to be remembered as a particular classic — you can see that a lot of historical research has been done, but the necessary task of squeezing it into a play hasn’t quite come off, I think. Still, I’m very glad I went. Sarah Hemming’s review can be read here.

Top stories today

• Lib Dem targets | Ed Davey has the seats of some of the top Tory cabinet ministers in his sights at the next general election. He claimed his party was poised to win over swaths of “Theresa May Conservatives”.

• ‘High bar’ | Michael Gove, UK communities secretary, has published a new definition of “extremism”, which he claims will tackle a threat from Islamist and right-wing extremists that has worsened since the Hamas attacks on October 7.

• Zucker punch | When former CNN boss Jeff Zucker swooped in with an eleventh-hour Abu Dhabi-backed bid to take control of the Telegraph and Spectator last November, he appeared confident he would emerge a winner. But yesterday Rishi Sunak fought back and set out plans to change the law to stop foreign states buying British news organisations. How did it all unfold?

Below is the Financial Times’ live-updating UK poll-of-polls, which combines voting intention surveys published by major British pollsters. Visit the FT poll-tracker page to discover our methodology and explore polling data by demographic including age, gender, region and more.