Despite an increase in the amount of precipitation and snow over the past few weeks, provincial snowpack levels are 34 per cent below normal, according to the Ministry of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship’s monthly survey.
Those numbers are an improvement since February, when snowpack levels were 39 per cent below normal averages, but worse than the year-ago period, when they were nine per cent below normal.
Snow levels are especially concerning in the Skagit Basin, South Coast and Vancouver Island, ranging from 54 to 70 per cent below normal, according to the report.
The latest findings pose “an ongoing concern” in regard to drought and reservoir level expectations later this year, Dave Campbell, head of the provincial River Forecast Centre, said at a press conference Friday.
“We typically have about 80 per cent of the snow that we see for the year is on the ground right now [in March],” Campbell said, adding it usually starts melting by mid-April.
“We’ve got maybe another one to two months that we expect to see ongoing accumulation … [But] we don’t expect wholesale changes in terms of the snowpack.”
Forecasts indicate a warmer spring and an early start to the snow melt, Campbell said, adding provincial rainfall levels have also seen a jump from 55 per cent of normal 10 days ago to 66 per cent this week.
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Darius Mahdavi, CBC News’ climate and science specialist, tells BC Today host Dan Burritt that snowpack levels in B.C. remain low despite the cold January weather — and explains the impact it’s expected to have on drought conditions.
Campbell said flood risk is expected to be low this spring, but that the situation could change if snowpack levels increase over the next month.
According to the survey, double the typical rate of snow accumulation is required to bring levels up to seasonal expectations, which is unlikely to happen due to above average temperatures and El Niño forecasts.
However, northwest B.C. has been an exception to this concern with a 15 per cent above average snow level.
Coree Tull of the B.C. Watershed Security Coalition told CBC News after the February survey’s release that impacts to reservoirs and river levels could affect everyone from farmers to firefighters.
“We’re in a multi-year drought … it really raises alarm bells,” Tull said.
On The Coast7:23Low B.C. snowpack raises drought concerns
River Forecast Centre hydrologist Jonathan Boyd speaks with guest host Amy Bell about the extremely low snowpack levels in B.C. this year, and the concerns this could lead to severe drought conditions.
The survey found elevated drought concerns due to the low provincial snowpack, impacts of last year’s drought and expectations for warmer months ahead.
Campbell said the anticipated early snow melt will initially rejuvenate streams, but will likely lead to low water levels in the summer.
“The weather doesn’t always follow what the forecast suggests, but I think we’re shaping up to … seeing that early melt,” he said.
“If it melts early, it’s going to be gone early and its contribution to continued flow in the summer is going to be diminished. That’s really going to be the key concern.”
The wildfire season ahead will be dependent on June precipitation levels, Campbell said, adding he remains optimistic and noting there’s “a little bit of time left in the season.”
