visionOS
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple Vision Pro has declined rapidly, but the pattern he reports fits every new Apple device and how they initially sell out before demand settles.
On its first day of preorders, Apple Vision Pro sold out within 18 minutes, and buyers saw shipping times immediately starting to stretch back weeks. Now Ming-Chi Kuo notes that Apple Vision Pro orders are shipping within 3-5 days, and says this is because of how “demand for the device declined rapidly [after launch] and has stayed the same.”
Writing in his blog, Kuo claims that unless “Apple cuts the price… or there are more attractive applications, the shipment growth in the US may be limited.” He nonetheless expects those shipments to be “200,000-250,000 this year, better than Apple’s original estimate of 150,000-200,000,” but it is “still a niche market.”
Kuo does point out that limited demand in the US means Apple will have the production capacity to speed up its global release of the Apple Vision Pro.
“The actual release time will depend on Apple’s software modification schedule to comply with other countries’ regulations,” he says. “I still maintain my prediction that Apple may launch Vision Pro in more countries before WWDC this year.”
He also reports that recently “several small-capacity suppliers” of Apple Vision Pro components “have expanded production from 500,000— 600,000 units to 700,000— 800,000 units this year.” And reportedly, Apple has asked suppliers to do this, in order to “reduce shipping time after the global launch.”
Kuo is at pains, though, to note that production capacity is not a sign of how many devices will be shipped. “For example, the iPhone’s current assembly capacity is 250— 300 million units per year, but the actual shipments are much lower,” he says,
Vision Pro Update: US Market Demand Slowing Significantly, Global Release Schedule Forecast, Interpretations for Supply Chain Production Expansion and Return Rates, New Model Prediction, and Investment Strategyhttps://t.co/mGb0Pv0qfX
— (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) February 28, 2024
This new report is based on Kuo’s sources within the industry, who are also telling him that Apple has “not officially started” either “a lower-priced version with downgraded specs (e.g., reduced number of cameras, removal of EyeSight, etc.) and a new model with upgraded specs.”
Even so, he reports that mass production of Apple’s next Apple Vision Pro project is expected to begin in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026. That project, though, is focused on “improving the efficiency of production and supply chain management rather than changing specs.”
So this expected version of Apple Vision Pro “may reduce costs” without reducing specifications, meaning that “the user experience will not differ from the current model.” Kuo presumes, then, that Apple will pass on its cost savings to buyers, but that’s not guaranteed.
Nor is a release date for the next significant iteration of the Apple Vision Pro, which Kuo predicts will not be in mass production until 2027.
That timescale fits with other recent rumors concerning the future of Apple Vision Pro.
