Why Poland and the Baltics are jostling for the EU’s top security jobs

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Good morning. News to start: Ursula von der Leyen previewed her ambitions for Brussels to take a larger role in the EU’s struggling defence industry less than a week ago, but officials and manufacturers are already questioning it.

One aspect of her proposal is the creation of a dedicated EU defence commissioner; here I assess the early runners and riders. And our energy correspondent calculates the cash needed to hit the EU’s green targets.

Eastern promise

We’re months away from any meaningful conversations over who might be the EU’s next chief diplomat or hypothetical defence commissioner, but that’s not holding back the plans of ambitious politicians from the bloc’s east.

Context: The EU commission’s current slate bows out this autumn. A new cohort will be agreed after the EU elections in June. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has proposed appointing a dedicated defence commissioner — if she gets another five years at the top of the EU’s executive.

That’s not stopped senior politicians from Poland and the three Baltic states who are already eyeing security portfolios for which Russia’s war against Ukraine — and Moscow’s threat to their borders — has made them serious contenders.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, and Lithuanian and Latvian Foreign Ministers Gabrielius Landsbergis and Krišjānis Kariņš all conspicuously used last weekend’s Munich Security Conference to boost their case for a senior EU security role.

Kallas and Landsbergis are both benefiting from campaigns on social media endorsing them for top Brussels security jobs. Sikorski’s name has been all over the Polish papers as the country’s likely next EU commissioner, while the desire of Kariņš to be Latvia’s is an open secret.

Aside from the mathematics of four people gunning for two jobs, there are other issues to consider.

First, geopolitical: some western states remain squeamish about giving security or defence roles to outspoken Russia hawks.

Second, political: Sikorski, Landsbergis and Kariņš are members of the European People’s party (EPP) — as is von der Leyen. Assuming she remains European Commission president, it’s hard to see the group also getting the chief diplomat job.

Kallas, from the liberal Renew group, could fit the bill, notwithstanding the aforementioned geopolitics.

The proposed, not yet formally described, and mildly belittled by some, future defence commissioner could be an excellent next-best. All four have the credentials to do the job with aplomb. It could be a long year of jostling.

Chart du jour: Victory?

More Europeans foresee a Russian victory in the war against Ukraine than anticipate Kyiv defeating its adversary, according to a new survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations. But the biggest share expect some form of compromise settlement.

Green money

It’s fine having climate targets but they won’t mean much without the cash to back them up — and that needs to double, according to a new report seen by Alice Hancock.

Context: The EU has set some of the most demanding climate targets in the world in its Green Deal climate regulations. Brussels says the bloc must cut emissions by 55 per cent by 2030, compared to 1990 levels, and reach net zero by 2050.

But reaching the 2030 goal alone will require €813bn per year between 2024 and 2030 — or 5.1 per cent of EU GDP, according to a report by the Institute for Climate Economics (I4CE), an NGO, published today. Spending in 2022, the latest year for which there is complete data, was €407bn.

The study collates total climate investment needs and actual spending in member states across buildings, transport and energy — the main sectors of focus for efforts to cut emissions. These account for around two-thirds of the bloc’s CO₂ emissions.

It comes at a sensitive time for the bloc, as focus turns from writing green policies to the cost of implementing them, amid increasing concern for the impact on EU industry and its competitiveness.

More than 70 EU executives gathered in Antwerp yesterday to sign a plea to the European Commission to cut red tape, reduce energy costs and focus on infrastructure and financing needs.

The I4CE researchers found that only in two out of 22 subsectors — hydropower and battery storage — were public and private climate investments higher in 2022 than the estimated investment needs. In wind power, for example, investment was 83 per cent lower than what was needed.

I4CE said that the commission’s own estimates of the “climate investment deficit” were patchy at best, with “little transparency” about their calculations.

“EU policymakers urgently need to better assess and address the EU climate investment deficit, or risk seeing the Green Deal failing to deliver all the economic, social and environmental promises it contains,” the group said.

What to watch today

1. European Commission publishes midterm review of Covid recovery fund.

2. German economy minister Robert Habeck presents annual economic report.

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