Guyana has accused Venezuela of violating international law in a dispute over a swath of oil-rich territory by expanding its military presence on their shared border despite pledging not to use force.
“This is not the first time Venezuela has adopted a military posture that appears to be threatening,” Guyanese foreign minister Hugh Todd told the Financial Times in an interview.
Venezuela recently beefed up its military presence on the border of the oil-and-mineral-rich Essequibo region, which makes up about two-thirds of Guyana’s territory but has long been claimed by Caracas.
The move followed a December referendum in Venezuela in which voters backed making the region a Venezuelan state — a development regarded by Guyana as a prelude to annexation by Caracas.
Guyanese President Irfaan Ali and his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolás Maduro, subsequently signed a declaration agreeing not to use force to settle the dispute.
But satellite images published last week by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank, appeared to show a deployment of light tanks and armed patrol boats at Anacoco Island on the border of the Essequibo region, where Venezuela is expanding a military base to house up to 300 troops.
The country’s armed forces have also posted videos of military exercises on Anacoco Island.
The International Court of Justice, the UN’s top court, is reviewing the dispute and in November ordered Venezuela not to take action that would alter the status quo, although a final ruling is years away.
“We are following the rule of international law, Venezuela is violating it,” Todd said, adding that Maduro was trying to compel Guyana to settle the dispute rather than going through the ICJ.
He accused Maduro of “double standards” and of seeking to impress voters ahead of elections, expected later this year, at a time when Venezuela remains mired in a humanitarian and economic crisis.
“[Venezuela has] argued it is committed to the region remaining a zone of peace and that it will not use force against Guyana. However, we’ve seen time and time again that back home, the military posture does not conform with the diplomatic stance,” he said.
Caracas has long disputed an international arbitration tribunal decision in 1899 to award Essequibo — an area roughly the size of England and home to about 125,000 people — to the then-colonial British Guiana. It has escalated its claims since US energy group ExxonMobil made large oil discoveries off the region’s coast in 2015.
The finds in the offshore Stabroek block are transforming Guyana’s economy. Gross domestic product expanded by 63 per cent in 2022 and 38 per cent last year, according to the IMF. It is expected to grow 20 per cent a year on average from 2024-28.
Venezuela’s foreign ministry issued a statement on Sunday saying Guyana and ExxonMobil, which is planning to drill in waters off the coast of the disputed area, were in breach of international law and “seeking to destabilise the region”.
But Venezuela’s stance will not affect Guyana’s oil and gas sector, Todd said: “We have assured the multinational companies operating in Guyana that we’re on the right side of international law, and we’re working on exploiting our true economic potential.”
ExxonMobil has pledged to continue its expansion in Guyana despite the dispute. Alistair Routledge, president of the company’s operations in the country, told Bloomberg last week that “we’re getting on with development and activity within acreage that is clearly Guyana’s territory . . . Where there’s controversy over the borders, that’s for the governments to resolve.”
However, Lloyd’s Market Association, which represents global insurers, last December placed Guyanese waters on the same risk level as the Red Sea, where commercial ships are facing attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
If conflict were to break out, Guyana’s armed forces, with only 4,070 active personnel and reserves, would face Venezuela’s 351,000-strong military.
Todd said Guyana was “not building any capacity to fight Venezuela” and that the country’s defence strategy continued to be based on co-operation with allies, which include the US and UK.
In December, the UK dispatched HMS Trent, a naval patrol ship, to Guyana, while the US conducted overflights. Following a visit from White House officials earlier this month, the US said it would help Guyana purchase new aircraft, drones and radar technology.
Analysts say tensions are likely to remain high this year, with Maduro seeking to exact concessions from Georgetown.
“Maduro will undoubtedly try to equate Venezuela’s military build-up, which officials have [said is] defensive, with Guyana’s purchases from the US and the visit by HMS Trent,” said Theodore Kahn, director for the Andean region at consultancy Control Risks. “He could use this, for example, to push for an agreement limiting foreign powers’ intervention in the dispute.”
But Todd was confident Guyana’s allies would ensure its security, saying: “In the democratic world, you will find that once you’re threatened by . . . a failing democracy, you will not be left alone.”
Cartography by Steven Bernard
