Yuichiro Chino/Moment via Getty Images
By Hamish Preston
The S&P 500® closed at another record high today, marking the ninth all-time high closing price level so far this year. Although all-time highs are not unprecedented—2024 is the 41st year since 1957 to host a new high—a few observations stand out when looking at this year’s records.
First, January 2024 saw the end of the seventh longest gap between S&P 500 all-time highs, ever. More than two years—or 513 trading days—separated Jan. 19, 2024’s then record close and its prior record high, posted on Jan. 3, 2022. This wait ended 27 trading days earlier than the 540-trading day gap in the 1950s, and it ended significantly quicker than other waits between all-time highs dating back to the 1920s (see Exhibit 2).
January also hosted one of the longest consecutive all-time high streaks, ever. Amid investors’ positive reactions to macroeconomic data and better-than-expected corporate earnings, the S&P 500 closed at record highs for five consecutive sessions between Jan. 19, 2024, and Jan. 25, 2024. The streak ended some way short of the 11-day records (posted in the 1920s and the 1960s), yet the 5-day run ranked as the joint 29th longest streak for the index and the longest run since the benchmark rose for eight consecutive sessions around the end of October 2021.
So what might these observations mean for the S&P 500 in 2024? We will have to wait and see if the S&P 500 continues to post record highs this year: predicting the future is difficult, and the last few years have served as a reminder that there are plenty of narratives (some telegraphed in advance, some not) that can drive the market’s direction. But with the S&P 500 up around 5% YTD on a price performance basis, history offers more than a glimmer of hope for the optimists.
Between 1957 and 2023, in the 40 years when the S&P 500 posted an all-time high, the U.S. equity benchmark recorded an average of 29 all-time highs per year. The average price performance during these years (13%) was better than the average for the 20 years when no all-time highs were observed (1.8%), and in turn higher than the average performance across all years since 1957 (8.5%).
Similar results were observed when looking at the 16 years between 1957 and 2023 when all-time highs were recorded in both January and February. These years were associated with an average of 42 highs, and an average annual price gain of 15%.
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Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
