After Senegal’s leader Macky Sall went on live television last weekend to announce that upcoming elections had been postponed, El Hadj Ndao, a resident of the capital Dakar, was in no doubt about what was happening. “We no longer have a president in Senegal,” he said. “We have a king now.”
Sall, one of Africa’s leading power brokers with close ties to France, sought to reassure the 17mn residents of the normally sedate country that this month’s vote could not be held until issues that threatened to “undermine the credibility of the ballot” had been resolved.
Having only last year ruled out a constitutionally contentious third term as president, Sall also reiterated his “solemn commitment” not to stand again, though Ndao was not alone in doubting his sincerity.
“The president was never ready to go and it looks like he’s trying to stay,” said Binta Fall, who works at an office supplies store in Dakar’s lively Colobane market. “He’s not ready to give up power.”
Senegal, one of the most stable democracies in Africa and among the few never to suffer a military coup, is suffering the worst constitutional crisis in its more than six decades of independence, analysts have said.
Even before the latest crisis, Senegal faced political tumult over the fate of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, who rallied the country’s youth in a challenge to Sall before being sent to prison last year.
“It’s an incredibly worrying situation,” said Paul Melly, an expert on francophone Africa at UK think-tank Chatham House.
Babacar Ndiaye, director of research at the Wathi think-tank in Dakar, described the events of the past few days — which included riot police interrupting a parliamentary vote on the postponement and bundling opposition lawmakers from the chamber — as a “shockwave for Senegal”.
Protesters took to Dakar’s streets to express their anger, prompting the authorities to deploy troops at strategic points around the capital. The internet and a critical television channel were shut down, further signs of how the crisis has rattled the country’s elite. More demonstrations are planned.
MPs did vote to reschedule the presidential ballot for December, which analysts saw as an attempt by the ruling party to buy time after it became increasingly clear it was set to lose the election.
“The postponement to December is ludicrous,” said Melly, adding that any issues raised by the president could be resolved in a far shorter time. “Sall’s job as departing president is to ensure the country has a smooth election and a smooth succession. In that he has failed.”
Senegal is the latest francophone nation in west Africa whose democracy has stuttered. Generals in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have ridden to power recently on a wave of anti-French sentiment. As French influence has waned, that of Russia has increased.
The dynamics are different in Senegal, which does not face an Islamist insurgency and where French military presence has been less obviously felt. Yet the crisis in Dakar, branded a “constitutional coup” by opposition leaders, has raised fears among its western allies that yet another African nation stands on the brink of chaos.
Ben Cardin, a US senator and chair of the foreign relations committee, said: “The postponement of Senegal’s presidential election puts the country on a dangerous path towards dictatorship.” Sall had shown “blatant disregard for the Senegalese constitution” and undermined “decades of progress”, Cardin added.
Sall has even faced opposition within his own ranks. Awa Marie Coll Seck, a renowned former health minister, resigned in protest from her position overseeing transparency in the extractive industries. So did cabinet secretary Abdou Latif Coulibaly, who said: “No one has the right to weaken the republic.”
At least three lawmakers, all allies of the jailed Sonko, were arrested since the parliamentary vote but have been released on bail. Some 2,000 Sonko supporters are already in prison after demonstrations last year in which at least 16 people were killed.
The charismatic Sonko, 49, was disqualified from the presidential contest after receiving a prison sentence for defamation. His supporters have called the charges, including a previous failed conviction for alleged rape, trumped up.
Yet even though Sonko had been effectively neutralised, the president had been warned that Sonko’s designated stand-in had a strong chance of beating Sall’s chosen successor, governing party candidate Amadou Ba.
Sall’s confidantes said he was convinced that Sonko’s policies, which include an exit from the French-backed CFA franc used by eight west African countries, would spell devaluation and economic ruin.
Many suspect that Sall now intends to use the time opened up by electoral postponement to manoeuvre a stronger candidate into position. One contender is Karim Wade, a former minister and son of Sall’s presidential predecessor. Ex-prime minister Idrissa Seck is another, according to people familiar with the matter and western diplomats in the capital.
Wade was disqualified from running after a court judgment that he had been too late to renounce his French citizenship in accordance with rules banning dual nationality. But if he was now able to stand for the presidency in December, speculated Melly, then why not Sonko, whose defamation sentence could then be behind him? “Postponement opens up a whole can of worms,” said the Chatham House expert.
A looming flashpoint will be April 2, the date that Sall is constitutionally supposed to yield power to his elected successor. That handover will now not happen. Ndiaye said: “No one can anticipate the course of events after that.”
