Ukraine set to receive first tranche of fresh EU funding within weeks

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Good morning. Yesterday evening Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy finally dismissed Valeriy Zaluzhny as his top military commander after months of tension between the two men. His sacking comes at a critical moment for Ukraine, as we report this morning that western officials are warning of a “gap in the hose” of military support to Kyiv that could imperil its ability to defend itself against Russian attacks.

Meanwhile Vladimir Putin hinted he could free US journalist Evan Gershkovich in exchange for a Russian assassin held in Germany in a rambling interview with conservative commentator Tucker Carlson. 

Today, the EU’s neighbourhood commissioner tells me that Brussels could make its first payment from a new financial support fund for Ukraine early next month. And our technology correspondent reports on the European Commission’s bid to get social networks to self-police AI-generated deepfakes that could undermine this summer’s election.

Cash flow

Brussels is hoping to release its first payment to Ukraine under a new long-term financial support package in a matter of weeks, according to neighbourhood and enlargement commissioner Olivér Várhelyi — but the rest of a landmark support package will be tied to Kyiv meeting reform demands.

Context: on February 1, EU leaders agreed to set up a €50bn, four-year financial aid package for Kyiv inside the shared EU budget, to support the country’s economy as it continues to fight back against Russia’s invasion. The bloc’s previous package of €1.5bn monthly payments ended in December.

“For the bridge financing . . . the first part of March is our ambition,” Várhelyi said in an interview. “This is an absolute must, especially with what is going on now in the US.”

“This way we will be back on track . . . and will help them with their financial difficulties,” he added.

With that payment made, work will turn to setting up a more formalised cash-for-reforms plan agreed between Kyiv and Brussels for Ukraine to receive the rest of the €50bn in quarterly instalments.

Ukraine is an EU candidate country, and so the concept is to link the ongoing financial assistance — which Kyiv says is essential to keep the state running as the war rages — to the reform path required of prospective members of the bloc.

“Our funding is not just aid. Our funding is based on conditionalities and deliverables. So basically now we need to see a credible plan, reform plan, from Ukraine. It’s almost done, basically,” Várhelyi said.

“So, yes, it is a flexible instrument and will move fast now with the bridge financing so not to have any financial gap . . . this is an opportunity created in the facility to ensure liquidity and the safety of payments in Ukraine, which we will do,” he added. “But other than that, everything is linked to delivery.”

Chart du jour: Farming talent

Almost half of France’s farmers are set to retire in the next decade with uncertainty among the next generation adding to climate change, droughts and new pests as a major challenge for the EU’s biggest agricultural producer and the world’s fifth-largest food exporter, reports Leila Abboud.

Vote police

The EU executive will call on big tech companies, such as social media platform X and Meta’s Facebook and Instagram, to clamp down on the spread of deepfakes ahead of the bloc’s elections this summer, writes Javier Espinoza.

Context: Brussels is worried about the abuse of generative AI, which can create synthetic texts, videos, and voice messages, and its use to manipulate voters ahead of bloc-wide elections in June.

Brussels plans to demand tech giants implement measures to curb the use of generative AI, such as watermarking to distinguish synthetic content, sourcing information from reliable authorities, and warning users about potential inaccuracies.

Companies such as Google’s YouTube will be urged to conduct thorough testing of Generative AI systems, and co-operate with fact-checkers to fight misinformation. Brussels will also call for the use of clear labelling of deepfakes, and co-operation with advertisers to tackle disinformation.

The EU is particularly concerned about generative AI being used for “creating and disseminating inauthentic, misleading synthetic content regarding political actors, false depiction of events, election polls, contexts or narratives”.

Thierry Breton, internal market commissioner, said yesterday: “2024 is a significant year for elections. That is why we are making full use of all the tools offered by the [Digital Services Act] to ensure platforms comply with their obligations and are not misused to manipulate our elections, while safeguarding freedom of expression.”

While the guidelines are not legally binding, large online media platforms will be under pressure to show they are clamping down on risky generative AI also ahead of elections in the US in November. Some companies are ahead of the curve: OpenAI, for instance, has already said it will start labelling fake images.

What to watch today

1. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins a two-day visit to the US.

2. EU ambassadors vote on a controversial new law regulating supply chains.

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