If anybody thought the February 2 US strikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria were going to end the attacks on US assets in the region, they were sorely mistaken.
The drone strike on a US base in Syria that occurred days later, killing six members of the Syrian Democratic Forces, is a testament to just how difficult it is to deter non-state actors (Report, February 6).
The US appears to be betting that military force, in the right frequency and location, will eventually convince the militias Iran supports to reassess their policy of harassing the US troops stationed in Iraq and Syria.
Yet very rarely do US policymakers acknowledge the flipside of the coin: coercing armed non-state actors to change their behaviour isn’t as simple as inflicting enough pain over time.
Unlike states, which are concerned first and foremost with defending their territory, preserving their regimes and maintaining a favourable balance of power, non-state groups are generally unencumbered by these kinds of restraining factors.
This is especially the case with the militias in Iraq and Syria, which are highly motivated to expel US troops from both countries and may not even mind a direct fight with the US, since such a conflict would boost their credentials as a resistance movement.
For evidence, look no further than Yemen, where the Houthis continue to threaten international shipping in the Red Sea, the Bab-el-Mandeb straits and Arabian Sea despite multiple rounds of US air strikes on their ammunition depots, anti-ship missiles and drone storage facilities.
Some of those strikes, in coordination with the UK, have entailed extensive bombing runs over dozens of targets. Still, the Houthis haven’t got the message yet and are more popular today in Yemen — and the Arab world — than they’ve ever been.
The US has backed itself into a game of tit for tat, even as it’s trying to avoid further escalation.
One of these factors in the formula will have to break.
Daniel R DePetris
Fellow, Defense Priorities (a Washington DC Think-Tank)
New Rochelle, NY, US
