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The restoration of power sharing after a two-year hiatus is good for Northern Ireland, and has brought with it a moment of history and symbolism that has garnered attention far beyond its own shores. In Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill the region has its first nationalist prime minister. That this could happen, with a member of the Democratic Unionist party, staunchly in favour of remaining part of the UK, in the role of deputy first minister, would have seemed unthinkable when the Good Friday Agreement established the terms of peace in the province in 1998.
Sinn Féin, which emerged as the largest party in Northern Ireland elections in 2022 but was long associated with the paramilitary IRA, also has a chance of winning the most seats in elections in the Irish Republic due by March 2025. Its advance on both sides of the border has brought breathless talk of a possible border poll on Northern Ireland’s future status that could lead to reunification. Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Féin president, said last week O’Neill’s elevation would bring Irish unity “within touching distance”. Yet unity remains, for now, a distant prospect. Sinn Féin would be wise to deliver on O’Neill’s pledge on Saturday to serve all sides in the region equally, and not to push for a border poll any time soon.
Her ascent was enabled by the decision of DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson to allow devolved government in the north to resume — though his party should never have begun its boycott of Belfast’s institutions in 2022. Indeed, it is regrettable that both the DUP and Sinn Féin have chosen at times to bring down Northern Ireland’s institutions — and that the way power-sharing was set up has disadvantaged moderate parties to the benefit of hardliners.
The DUP walked out in protest over post-Brexit trading arrangements that it said risked cutting Northern Ireland adrift from the rest of the UK. The agreement that paved the way for its return, in essence fine-tuning a deal Rishi Sunak’s UK government reached with Brussels last year, amounts to somewhat less than meets the eye. But Donaldson accepted the political fig leaf it offered, even at the risk of deepening splits within his party.
The return of power-sharing offers a chance to start addressing the desperate state of public finances and public services, especially health. It will unlock a £3.3bn funding package from the UK government. It allows the province to begin to benefit from its unique post-Brexit position, with privileged access to both the EU and UK markets.
It is in the interests of both Sinn Féin’s O’Neill and the DUP deputy first minister Emma Little-Pengelly — whose powers, despite their titles, are the same — to make this arrangement work. Whatever hardline elements of the DUP might say, the best advert for continuation of the union with the UK is a well-functioning Northern Ireland. For Sinn Féin to win broader trust in the north and south, meanwhile, it needs to demonstrate it can govern responsibly — even if, paradoxically, smooth government lessens the incentive for a vote to change the status quo.
Though Sinn Féin has consolidated the nationalist vote, any talk of reunification is premature. Under the Good Friday Agreement, the UK secretary of state should call a border poll once it appears likely a majority in the region would support reunification. We are still not near that point. Polling shows a consistent majority in favour of remaining in the UK. Sinn Féin has become Northern Ireland’s largest party because unionism has fractured, not because nationalism is on the march.
Many will mark the symbolism of this moment. Once it is past, however, what Northern Ireland needs is less symbolism and talk of changing its status, and more solid, good government for a people who have been denied it for too long.
