Groundhog Day rings true for US politics

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

You may have been mistaken for thinking that you have entered Groundhog Day this month with the repeat landslide victories of Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primaries.

But this week really will see the event the 1993 Bill Murray movie classic is based on: the meteorologically themed celebration to mark the end of winter — or not depending on whether the groundhog emerging from its burrow in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, sees its shadow.

Something that will be repeating this week will be the talk of the UK government’s battle to secure legislation that will enable it to send illegal migrants to Rwanda. The House of Lords holds a second reading debate on the British government’s safety of Rwanda (asylum and immigration) bill on Monday. Downing Street has urged peers “not to frustrate the will of the people” after previous amendments were voted through.

It is another week for central bankers to take the spotlight. The US Federal Open Market Committee and the UK’s Bank of England announce their rate decisions this week. We’re expecting a cut from both, just not this month. Central bankers have been, and are likely to continue to be, in wait-and-see mode — read Chris Giles’s excellent Central Banks newsletter (for Premium subscribers) to get more detail.

Tech earnings reach a peak this week with figures from Apple, Google-owner Alphabet, Amazon.com, Microsoft and Meta. Investors are looking for signs that their investments in artificial intelligence are beginning to pay off. It was excitement about this clutch of companies, which with Tesla and Nvidia were known as the Magnificent Seven, that drove up US share prices last year.

And across in Europe, the aircraft leasing industry’s flagship annual conference touches down in Dublin. Speakers include the chief financial officers of United Airlines, Riyadh Air and Wizz Air, plus executives from Southwest Airlines and IndiGo.

One more thing . . . 

My eldest son has a passion for Vikings, and all being well will be disappearing to university later in the year to study remains of Norse settlements as part of an archaeology degree.

I mention this because this week sees one of the big events for fans of all things Viking. On Tuesday, hundreds of Shetlanders will march through the streets of Lerwick, flaming torches aloft, to mark the ancient Viking festival of Up Helly Aa. It sounds a blast. Perhaps one day I’ll get up there with my son.

What are your priorities this week? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this in your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• EU: European Central Bank vice-president Luis de Guindos speaking at the Investment Outlook conference, organised by Citi Private Bank, in Madrid

• UK: Zoopla House Price index, plus ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor

• Results: Philips Q4, Ryanair Q3

Tuesday

• The aviation finance industry gathers in Dublin to meet plane manufacturers and airlines at the industry’s flagship annual conference, organised by Airline Economics

• IMF World Economic Outlook

• EU: flash Q4 gross domestic product estimate

• France: monthly consumer spending figures

• UK: Q4 insolvency figures, plus British Retail Consortium shop price data

• US: Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey

• Results: Advanced Micro Devices Q4, Alphabet Q4, Canon FY, Corning Q4, Diageo HY, Electronic Arts Q3, General Motors Q4, JetBlue Airways Q4, Komatsu Q3, ManpowerGroup Q4, Microsoft Q2, Mondelez International Q4, NEC Q3, Pets at Home Q3, Pfizer Q4, Saga trading update, SSP Group Q1 trading update & AGM, Starbucks Q1, Stryker Q4, United Parcel Service Q4, Whirlpool Q4

Wednesday

• Brazil: Banco Central do Brasil Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) rate-setting decision announced

• France: preliminary January consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data.

• Germany: preliminary January CPI inflation rate data, plus retail sales figures.

• UK: Nationwide January House Price index

• US: Federal Open Market Committee rate-setting decision announcement.

• Results: Banco Santander FY, Boeing Q4, Chubb Q4, Fujitsu Q3, GSK Q4, H&M FY, Hitachi Q3, Mastercard Q4, Match Group Q4, Nasdaq Q4, Nomura Holdings Q3, Novartis Q4, Novo Nordisk Q4, Qualcomm Q1, Samsung Electronics Q4, Software AG Q4, UMC Q4

Thursday

• EU: preliminary January CPI inflation rate estimate and December unemployment figures

• France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: final purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for manufacturing

• Malaysia: Federal Territory Day. Financial markets closed.

• Sweden: repo rate-setting decision announcement

• UK: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee rate-setting announcement

• Results: 3i Group Q3 performance update, Amazon.com Q4, Apple Q1, Barr (AG) FY trading update, BNP Paribas FY, Brunswick Q4, BT Group Q3 trading update, Coursera Q4, Dassault Systèmes Q4, Icelandair Q4, ING Q4, International Paper Q4, Glencore Q4 production report, Hartford Financial Services Q4, Konami Q3, Merck & Co Q4, Meta Q4, MetLife Q4, Mitsubishi Motors Q3, Novozymes FY, Pitney-Bowes Q4, Rank Group HY, Roche Holding FY, Royal Caribbean Group Q4, Sanofi Q4, Shell Q4, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Q3, United States Steel Q4

Friday

• France: monthly industrial production figures

• US: February employment update

• Results: AbbVie Q4, Aon Q4, Bank of India Q3, Bristol Myers Squibb Q4, Charter Communications Q4, Chevron Q4, Cigna Group Q4, Danske Bank Q4, Deutsche Bank FY, Electrolux Q4, ExxonMobil Q4, Ferrari Q4, Japan Airlines Q3, KDDI Q3, Mitsui & Co Q3, Panasonic Q3, Tata Motors Q3, YouGov HY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• UK: House of Lords holds a second reading debate on the British government’s safety of Rwanda (asylum and immigration) bill

• US: trial of former British Virgin Islands premier Andrew Fahie begins in a Miami court on charges of drug smuggling, money laundering and racketeering

Tuesday

• France: Prime Minister Gabriel Attal delivers his general policy speech at the National Assembly in Paris. Meanwhile, France’s President Emmanuel Macron begins a state visit to Sweden

• UK: Shetlanders mark the ancient Viking festival of Up Helly Aa

Wednesday

• EU economic sanctions against Russia, first introduced in 2014 over military action against Ukraine, are due to expire, unless extended again

• Fourth anniversary of the UK leaving the EU after 47 years in the bloc

• UK: former Co-operative Bank chair Paul Flowers, is due in court for a plea hearing after being charged with fraud by abuse of position between June 2016 and October 2017

Thursday

• UK: Labour party Business Conference in London, with keynote speeches expected by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves and shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds

• US: 60th anniversary of The Beatles scoring their first number one in the Billboard charts with “I Want to Hold Your Hand”

Friday

• Belgium: EU-Asean ministerial meeting in Brussels, attended by delegates from EU member states and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

• France: Men’s Six Nations rugby tournament begins with France vs Ireland in Marseille

• UK: Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry phase-four hearings conclude with closing statements from “core participants”

• US: Groundhog Day celebrations

Saturday

• Italy: Viareggio Carnival begins in the Tuscan city that gives it its name

• Norway: Bodø hosts a ceremonial opening to celebrate its tenure as one of the 2024 European Capitals of Culture

Sunday

• 20th anniversary of Mark Zuckerberg launching the first iteration of social media site Facebook, originally called The Facebook

• Costa Rica: municipal elections

• El Salvador: general election to elect the president, vice-president and all 60 deputies of the country’s Legislative Assembly

• US: 66th Grammy Awards in Los Angeles