Round two for US Republican voters

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

You ever get that sense of déjà vu? Round two of the Republican primary season takes us to New Hampshire this week, and former president Donald Trump is once again the runaway favourite.

The pressure at this Tuesday’s caucuses is on the also-rans, particularly Nikki Haley. She finished third in Iowa last week, underperforming polls, and is facing pressure from her backers to put in a strong showing in New Hampshire or forfeit campaign funding. Haley hopes her brand of traditional conservatism will appeal to New Hampshire’s independent and more centrist voters. You can read full coverage from FT reporters on the campaign trail by clicking here.

The Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada meet to set rates this week, but are unlikely to change course — ECB president Christine Lagarde suggested at Davos last week that the first rate cut for the eurozone would come in the summer. However, the central bankers’ comments will be closely watched for clues about the timing of future policy changes.

Other economic data will be dominated by US reports, in particular fourth-quarter GDP figures. International comparisons will be possible with the latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reports for manufacturing and services across the G7 nations. China has its monthly one and five-year loan prime rate fixings, and the ECB publishes its quarterly lending survey.

We’re also entering the thick of the earnings season with US companies picking up the pace, notably tech ventures Tesla, Intel, Netflix, IBM and Seagate. For the UK, it’s a lot of booze and builders — never to be mixed. Crest Nicholson updated the market last week, when the construction group indicated full-year pre-tax profit would be £41mn, 15 per cent below consensus estimates. JD Wetherspoon is closing outlets, but is expected to provide some cheer from increased like-for-like sales.

One more thing . . . 

The week ends as it begins, with more voting, this time in Finland. This year is (as I and many others have mentioned before) a record year for democracy, and my colleagues on the FT video team have produced a series of short films, presented by four renowned artists, on the potential benefits and dangers of so many people having an opportunity to cast a ballot. Watch them here: ft.com/democracy2024

What are your priorities this week? What would you like to read more about? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• China: People’s Bank of China loan prime rate announcement

• Germany: Buba monthly report

• UK: EY Item Club winter economic forecast

• Results: S4 Capital trading statement, Zions Bancorporation Q4

Tuesday

• EU: January consumer confidence survey

• Japan: Bank of Japan rate-setting announcement

• UK: December public sector finances data

• Results: 3M Q4, Associated British Foods trading update, Brown & Brown Q4, Crest Nicholson FY, General Electric Q4, Halliburton Q4, Invesco Q4, Johnson & Johnson Q4, Netflix Q4, Premier Foods Q3 trading update, Procter & Gamble Q2, Texas Instruments Q4, United Airlines Q4, Verizon Communications Q4

Wednesday

• Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate announcement

• EU, France, Germany, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB flash January purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the manufacturing and services sectors

• South Africa: December consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• Results: Abbott Laboratories Q4, Abrdn HY trading update, AT&T Q4, Baker Hughes Q4, Computacenter pre-close trading update, Crown Castle Q4, easyJet Q1 trading update, Fresnillo Q4 production report, General Dynamics Q4, IBM Q4, Kimberly-Clark Q4, Raymond James Financial Q1, Seagate Technology Q2, Tesla Q4, Tullow Oil trading statement, JD Wetherspoon trading update

Thursday

• EU: European Central Bank rate-setting announcement

• France: January consumer confidence survey

• Germany: Ifo Business Climate survey

• Korea: Q4 GDP figures (AM local time)

• US: preliminary Q4 GDP figures

• Results: Alaska Air Q4, American Airlines Q4, Blackstone Q4, Capital One Financial Q4, Comcast Q4, CVS Group trading update, Dow Q4, Dr Martens Q3 trading update, Fever-Tree Drinks trading update, Foxtons FY trading update, Fujitsu General Q3, Fuller, Smith & Turner trading update, Gallagher (Arthur J) Q4, Halfords Q3 trading update, Intel Q4, Levi Strauss & Co Q4, LG Electronics Q4, McCormick & Co Q4, Marsh & McLennan Q4, Mitie Group Q1 trading update, Murphy Oil Q4, Northrop Grumman Q4, Southwest Airlines Q4, St James’s Place FY new business announcement, STMicroelectronics Q4, Union Pacific Q4, Visa Q1, Wizz Air Holdings Q3, Workspace Group Q3 trading update

Friday

• Japan: Bank of Japan monetary policy committee meeting minutes

• Germany: GfK consumer confidence survey

• UK: GfK consumer confidence survey

• Results: American Express Q4, Booz Allen Hamilton Q3, Colgate-Palmolive Q4, Matsui Securities Q3, Paragon Banking Group Q1 trading statement, YouGov trading statement, WHSmith trading update

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

Tuesday

• US: New Hampshire presidential primary election, building support for the Republican party candidate to be nominated in the summer

• US: 96th Academy Awards nominations announced online. The Oscars, as the Academy’s gongs are known, will be presented at a ceremony in Hollywood on March 10

Wednesday

• 700th day of Russia-Ukraine war

• UK: National Audit Office publishes report on the Westminster government’s support for biomass. The government’s Biomass Strategy sets out the role biomass might play in reaching the target of net zero by 2050

Thursday

• 100th anniversary of the first Winter Olympics

• UK: Burns Night, the annual celebration of Scottish poet Robert Burns

Friday

• Australia: Australia Day. Financial markets closed

• India: French President Emmanuel Macron visits India and meets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the 75th anniversary of Republic Day. Financial markets closed

Saturday

Sunday