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Good morning. Rishi Sunak suffered a big rebellion last night over his plan to fix the Rwanda policy, with two MPs resigning as deputy chairs of the Tory party. Some thoughts on the state of the Conservative policy and a question a lot of you are asking: what, exactly, is the upside to this for the government?
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About last night
Sixty-five Conservative MPs voted against the government’s Rwanda legislation yesterday: that includes two, Scott Benton and Andrew Bridgen, who were elected under Tory colours but now sit as independents, and 63 who remain Conservative MPs. (The largest single rebellion by Tory MPs was 58, with the 65 voting against the government across two amendments.) These proposed changes intend to toughen the bill and curtail people’s ability to challenge their relocation to Rwanda.
I don’t have an awful lot to add to what I wrote yesterday. While there were many more rebels than the 28 needed to overcome the government’s majority, my impression from hitting the phone last night is that at least some rebels plan to return to the fold on the third reading rather than vote with the opposition parties. Unless I have heard from every single returning rebel, which is possible but I think not at all likely, the government is not going to be defeated at the third reading tonight. “What you will also see this afternoon is a united determination to make sure this Rwanda policy works,” said Michael Tomlinson, illegal migration minister.
But to be honest, from a Tory perspective, the political damage has been done because it is another week in which the background noise about and from the Conservatives is of a party in disarray. Small wonder that a lot of you are asking: “What exactly do loyal Conservative MPs expect to happen here?”
There are broadly two and a half theories in the Conservative party about what will be achieved by getting any flight off to Rwanda: the first is that the prospect of ending up in Rwanda will deter people who have yet to be deterred by the prospect of a horrible death in the Channel.
The second, which I hear more often these days from Conservative MPs, is that the mere act of sending someone, anyone to Kigali (other than a government minister) will transform voter perceptions of the Tory party’s immigration position.
I make no comment on the plausibility or otherwise of these views, other than to say that I am doubtful that they are a prize worth the cost. But that gets me on to the “and a half” bit. For some Conservative MPs, it was a mistake to sign up to the Rwanda policy but they have no way to get out of it without having yet more public conversations about the failure of the government’s immigration policy. So, they conclude, their interests are best served by silent acquiescence.
Now try this
I’ve just started reading Blind Willow, Sleeping Woman, a collection of short stories by Haruki Murakami, after very much enjoying the animated film of the same name that adapted them for the screen. Thus far, I can’t recommend either of them enough.
