How Brussels and Budapest can claim victory from a Ukraine aid compromise

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Good morning. Donald Trump’s potential election as US president is “clearly a threat” to Europe, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said yesterday, citing Trump’s views on Nato, trade policies and climate change.

Today, I explain the possible compromise required to get Viktor Orbán to lift his veto on the EU’s Ukraine support package, and our Rome correspondents report on the fascist salute furore that has embroiled Giorgia Meloni.

Hungary for a deal

Negotiations between Viktor Orbán’s consiglieres and senior officials in the European Commission and Council have produced a compromise proposal on a four-year Ukraine aid package that EU diplomats reckon could be enough to overturn Budapest’s veto and get cash to Kyiv — at least for now.

Context: Brussels wants to provide Ukraine with €50bn from the EU’s shared budget over four years. Orbán vetoed that at an EU leaders’ summit last month. The leaders have been summoned to meet again on February 1, and the other 26 have vowed to strike an off-budget deal if the Hungarian prime minister refuses to budge.

Officials yesterday were briefed on a compromise solution that would introduce a review of the support package at its halfway point, and include a so-called “emergency brake” mechanism that any member state could pull if they had concerns, triggering discussions on the issue.

That would give Orbán some room to cause trouble down the line, but stops short of what he had demanded: an annual vote on continuing the cash flow, which he could threaten to veto every year.

Budapest has signalled it will probably be enough. Given that the whole point was to provide Kyiv with unconditional, dependable, long-term funding, Orbán can sell the compromise as a concession to him. But other EU officials contend that his lifting his veto on the money would be a far larger climbdown.

“We have engagement [with Hungary] and that is a positive,” said one of the officials involved in the negotiations. “Our aim is to always have all 27 on board.”

Officials strive to point out that this is Orbán they’re talking about, and as such, there’s no guarantee the pugnacious Hungarian won’t change his position in the run-up to the summit, add more demands or simply renege on any preliminary agreement.

But most of the people involved in the negotiations are noticeably more positive about a deal than in the immediate wake of the December summit.

“There’s much more optimism today than there was at the end of last year,” said one. “It can get done.”

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Image problems

Before her 2022 election, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni boldly declared that Italy’s right had “consigned fascism to history”.

But the image of hundreds of black-shirted far-right activists giving a fascist salute at a gathering last weekend suggested otherwise, creating a political embarrassment for Meloni as she tries to reposition herself as a mainstream conservative, write Amy Kazmin and Giuliana Ricozzi.

Context: In 1978, three activists of the neo-fascist Italian Social Movement (MSI) were fatally shot in clashes in Rome. Since then, far-right activists gather annually to commemorate the slain, culminating with fascist dictator Benito Mussolini’s “Roman salute”. Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party has its political roots in the MSI, founded by Mussolini loyalists.

Footage of this weekend’s memorial event has triggered an outcry, and raised questions of how such open displays of fascist symbols are permitted. Russian state television utilised the images to claim that Europe is descending into fascism.

The images have also raised attention in Brussels, and the European parliament will discuss how to avoid a resurgence of neo-fascism in the EU next week.

Amid the furore, Meloni has refused to comment.

“Giorgia Meloni’s silence is embarrassing,” Elly Schlein, leader of the centre-left Democratic party wrote on Instagram this week. “She cannot say a word to condemn the gathering . . . she cannot distance herself from her past, of which she is hostage.”

Defence minister Guido Crosetto yesterday said on X, the social media platform, that neither Meloni nor her government was involved in the event, which had taken place for years.

Meloni has tried to change the subject, lashing out against what she called “gratuitous attacks and instrumental controversies”.

In her own social media post yesterday, she said that her government would focus on delivering “concrete policies to cut workers’ taxes, and help those who produce wealth and create jobs”.

What to watch today

1. European parliament president Roberta Metsola travels to Lithuania, beginning a “Get out the vote” tour of member states ahead of June’s EU elections.

2. Belgian President Alexander De Croo meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.

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